The Opponent: Vanderbilt University was founded in 1873, named after its generous benefactor Cornelius Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt was a founding member of the SEC in 1932 and is the conference’s only remaining private school. Whoever says college football success is all about money will probably have a tough time explaining Vanderbilt’s program. The University’s endowment is reportedly over $10 billion, however, Vanderbilt has only had two seasons with a winning record in the SEC over the last 50 years. The Commodores are coached by Clark Lea, a Nashville native who played fullback for Bobby Johnson at Vandy. Now in his third season, Lea is currently 2-21 in SEC games.
Are they any Good?: No, this Vanderbilt team is the furthest thing from “good” that this conference has seen in a long time. If you have not been paying attention, then you may be surprised to learn that Vandy has been outscored 269 to 111 in seven conference games. That is an average margin of defeat of 22.5 points, a figure that balloons to 30.3 points in its three conference road games. Frankly, it is hard to find anything this Vanderbilt team does well. They are well rested at least. Thanks to an early season game in Hawaii, the Commodores have an extra bye week. Clark Lea’s team had two full weeks to prepare for Tennessee. A massive upset win inside Neyland Stadium would give Vanderbilt some much-needed juice heading into the off-season. Otherwise, it is fair to wonder what exactly Vanderbilt’s role is in the modern NIL-driven landscape of college football.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Once again, this game is going to test the mental resolve and leadership of this Tennessee football team. The Vols are beat up, and coming off two straight whippings. Tennessee has been outscored 74 to 17 its last two games. This game will tell us a lot about Tennessee’s reserves. A number of Vols are banged up and questionable going into Saturday’s game. Look for new faces along the offensive line, and possibly in the secondary. It is a big opportunity for some of these players with the transfer portal looming. “If I can’t get on the field now, then am I ever going to play here?” That could be a common question bouncing around the locker room this week. Can Tennessee’s reserves use that as motivation rather than a distraction? This game will tell us plenty about Tennessee’s depth heading into the off-season.
What does Vegas think?: This line opened at Tennessee -25.5. It has been bet up as high as -27.5 at some books. It is a little surprising given how anemic Tennessee has looked in its past two games, but this spread is more reflective of the Commodores. Clark Lea’s team is just 1-10 ATS this season, however, Vegas seems to be adjusting. Vandy’s spreads against Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn were all under 14 points. Their one cover was against Georgia (+32.5), which was followed up with a 33-7 loss against Ole Miss as 24-point underdogs. Neither team has many positive vibes going into this game, so it is really a question of which team you feel most negatively about.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Can a youth injection help this fading secondary? I don’t know if we will get a chance to answer this question, but it is worth asking. Tennessee’s secondary is allowing 8.5 yards per attempt in SEC play. Opposing quarterbacks are completing nearly 70% of their passes in conference as well. Ever since Kamal Hadden went out, this does not seem to be a group playing with much confidence. They certainly don’t seem comfortable challenging passes man to man. Several Vols are banged up in the secondary. Tamarion McDonald and Jourdan Thomas both sound like they will play on Saturday, but there is no guarantee. Wesley Walker is questionable at best. Andre Turrentin struggled in his place last week, but the entire defense struggled against Georgia. Redshirt junior walk-on Will Brooks played 70 snaps at the STAR position and didn’t seem to be much of a difference-maker. Saturday’s game matters for this season, and you should always want your best players on the field. Can Tennessee have an eye to the future in the defensive backfield though? The Vols brought in several high-profile defensive backs as part of the 2023 class. Rickey Gibson III is the only one we have really seen in the secondary, and that has been minimal. Christian Conyer, John Slaughter, and Jordan Matthews have all played special teams regularly this season. All of these players should be major factors in the future for Tennessee. Would it do any harm to see them more on Saturday? The Vols need a spark in the defensive backfield.
More from RTI: Five Tennessee Sports Moments To Be Thankful For In The Last Year
Matchup to watch on Offense: Can Tennessee just run Vanderbilt over? Last season Tennessee rushed for over 370 yard against the Commodores. Tennessee’s running backs averaged a staggering 13.2 yards per carry on a rainy night in Nashville. Vanderbilt finds itself at the bottom of the SEC in terms of run defense this year, giving up over 5.0 yards per carry. That number is closer to 6.0 in conference games. How does Tennessee handle its running back rotation in this game? While Jaylen Wright has been the unquestioned starter for the Vols, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson have regularly rotated into the backfield. The overall results are hard to argue with, but it is worth asking whether Wright should be getting more carries. He leads the country in yards per carry (7.44) among all running backs. Regardless of who runs the ball though, Tennessee needs to find success against this Vanderbilt defense. Vandy has given up 30+ points in every SEC game this season. Josh Heupel is 24-3 at Tennessee when scoring 30 or more. Even with reserve offensive linemen playing, I think Tennessee will find success on the ground against the Commodores The question becomes whether they just run Vanderbilt over. Tennessee fans are frustrated with the quarterback position. That happens when the production drops off so dramatically. The Vols will find plays in the passing game against a Vandy secondary giving up 277 yards per game in conference. Saturday is all about Tennessee’s ground game though.
Fun Fact: Cornelius Vanderbilt had an incredibly interesting and successful life by nearly any measure. The Commodore’s fingerprints are all over early American logistics, higher education, and the American Civil War. They were also all over his cousin, Sophia Johnson. Vanderbilt married his first cousin in 1813 when he was 19 years old. While we may cringe at that fact, it was still a fairly regular practice in the early 1800’s. Marriage between first cousins did not start getting outlawed until around the Civil War. Kansas was the first state to do so in 1858, followed quickly by a host of other states. It is still completely legal in 19 states though, including Tennessee. Of the 31 states that prohibit marriage between first cousins, only nine appear to also prohibit intimate relations between two consenting cousins. A lot of these facts were gathered from this article published in PLOS Biology, a peer-reviewed scientific journal. Despite being seemingly well-educated, the authors take a pretty wild stance on the whole matter in their conclusion. I guess it would make Thanksgiving easier to plan.
So what Happens?: To predict this game, I need to know where each team’s mentality is heading into Saturday. I am most curious about Vanderbilt. Did they use their bye week to focus on salvaging their season with a road upset, or do some Commodores already have eyes on the offseason? I think we will know fairly early on. Regardless, this is a game that Tennessee should win comfortably. I say “should” because there is some doubt here. Tennessee has not scored a second-half offensive touchdown in the majority of its conference games; Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri and Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been absolutely anemic down the stretch in the SEC. Those defenses are all ranked in the top half of the SEC though. The Dawgs, Tide, and Aggies are the top three in that order. Vanderbilt is dead last in every defensive metric by a wide margin. Backups or not, Tennessee should be able to score 30+ on this team. Everybody else in the SEC has. Tennessee will do it mostly on the ground with 230+ rushing yards. I expect Joe Milton to have success throwing the ball, but it will mostly be a side dish on Saturday. The question is then, can Vanderbilt move the ball against Tennessee? It is a Vanderbilt offense that is rushing for less than 90 yards per game in conference. I don’t expect them to eclipse that mark inside Neyland Stadium. The Commodores are not showing their hand at quarterback. There has not been a big difference between Ken Seals or AJ Swann this year though. Tennessee is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.4% of their passes in conference play. Will Sheppard is a very nice pass catcher for the Commodores. I already touched on Tennessee’s secondary. It is not a bunch playing with much confidence right now. I will not be surprised if Vanderbilt throws for 240+ yards against Tennessee. I expect Tennessee’s defense to make enough negative plays to counterbalance that success though. Vanderbilt leads the SEC with 19 turnovers on the year. Despite their recent struggles, I don’t see these Vols just mailing it in on Saturday. Josh Heupel’s teams don’t seem to play down to inferior opponents. More often they seem to thrash them. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS this season when that number is 20+. The Vols faced Vanderbilt last year just a week after laying an egg against South Carolina. Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 56-0, doubling them up in total yardage. I am skeptical this year’s Tennessee offense will get to 50+ again, but I expect this game to be over by the fourth quarter. Tennessee takes out their frustration on Clark Lea’s bunch. Final score should read Tennessee 42, Vanderbilt 17
