Tennessee Football Preview: Vols Look to Rebound With Kentucky Matchup in Lexington

The Opponent: The University of Kentucky was founded in 1865, and started playing football in 1881. Saturday night will be the 119th all-time meeting between the Wildcats and Volunteers. Tennessee holds a decisive all-time advantage at 82-26-9. The Cats are coached by Mark Stoops, in his 11th season in Lexington. Stoops is 34-52 all-time in the SEC. Saturday night is a big game for Stoops, who has drawn the ire of some Kentucky fans after complaining about the need for NIL funds and more talented players. On the opposite sideline, Josh Heupel is 7-1 in games following a loss.

Are they any Good?: Maybe, it is all relative though. Kentucky has looked really good in spots and spurts, and really pedestrian at times. The Cats started 5-0, but have lost their last two games going into a bye week. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 89 points combined in those two losses. At their best, we saw Kentucky spank Florida in September. The Cats were able to jump out to an early lead and let RB Ray Davis carry this offense. That is Kentucky’s recipe for success. It has not gone well when they have asked QB Devin Leary and this passing game to shoulder the load. The Cats have two more games against ranked opponents this season in Alabama and upstart Louisville. They also host South Carolina late in the year. Kentucky’s season will likely end up being a disappointment if they can’t win this game on Saturday.

What will this tell us about Tennessee?: It is another road test for a Tennessee team that has not played a complete game away from Neyland Stadium this season. Tennessee played its best half of football last Saturday in Tuscaloosa but followed it up with a 27-0 second-half shellacking. The challenge Saturday night is keeping focus for all four quarters. It is honestly something this Kentucky team has struggled with at times as well. Both teams have started hot this season, so it will be interesting to see which squad jumps out in front. With a win, Tennessee can still get to nine or ten regular season wins this year. With a loss, seven or eight wins is very much on the table.

What does Vegas say?: The line opened at Tennessee -4.5 at most books and currently sits at Vols -3.5. That would suggest Tennessee is nearly a touchdown favorite over Kentucky on a neutral field. Both teams are now 4-3 ATS this season. Saturday night will be only the second time playing as underdogs this season for Kentucky, and their first at home in Winn Dixie Stadium. The Over/Under is set at 51.5.

More from RTI: Bowl Projections For Tennessee Football Ahead Of Kentucky Game

Matchup to watch on Offense: Keep the creativity going in the run game. Tennessee called a lot more designed runs for Joe Milton in Tuscaloosa last Saturday. The results were fairly positive, and now force opposing coordinators to prepare for the traditional option play. You could also argue the designed runs may have helped settle Milton into the game as a passer. Whatever the rationale, Tennessee needs to keep up the creativity on the ground. Kentucky has a salty run defense. The Cats are giving up less than 100 yards per game, and just 3.07 yards per carry (YPC). Georgia has really been the only team to have success running on Kentucky this year. Tennessee needs to change that Saturday night in order to leave Lexington with a win. The reality is the Vols likely ran Milton more last Saturday because its traditional ground game was not working against Alabama. Tennessee’s three running backs had just 74 yards on 23 carries in Tuscaloosa. It was a similar lack of production to what we saw from Tennessee in the Swamp in September. The Vols have averaged just 3.43 YPC in their two defeats this season, versus 6.25 YPC in their five wins. Whether it is Milton, or the running backs, Tennessee needs to make sure its ground game travels this time. The ground game has always been the engine of Josh Heupel’s offense, and that is especially true with the passing game struggling this year. Tennessee needs to be creative with its running game Saturday night, and do whatever it takes to find success on the road.

Matchup to watch on Defense: Can Tennessee make Kentucky one-dimensional? It is a pretty simple task if Tennessee wants to win Saturday night, but the execution will be tricky. Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis is having a superb season in Lexington. Davis is averaging 7.0 yards per carry and ran for 280 yards against Florida earlier this season. Kentucky’s goal is to have Davis carry it 20-25 times, including deep into the fourth quarter. Even after a disappointing second half last week, Tennessee’s run defense has been stout most of this season. Tennessee is giving up just 3.03 yards per carry this year, or 3.33 YPC away from Neyland Stadium. Outside of Ray Davis, this has been a very inconsistent Kentucky offense. The return of Liam Cohen as offensive coordinator, and the arrival of Devin Leary from NC State, was supposed to jump-start the Wildcat passing game. That has not happened so far through seven games. Devin Leary is really struggling. He is completing less than 50% of his passes against SEC competition, and throwing for just 130 yards per game in conference. That is even with some talented pass catchers. After a big game against Vanderbilt, it has been a quiet month for sophomore Barion Brown. The same can be said for Dane Key. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson leads the Cats in total receiving yards. Most Kentucky fans are still waiting for everything to click with the passing game. All of the ingredients seem to be there, but the end result has not been good. If you are Tennessee, this Kentucky passing game should not be able to beat you on their own. The Volunteers need to first focus on bottling up Ray Davis. A one-dimensional Kentucky offense is not very threatening. I also think Tennessee can have success with its pass rush even though Kentucky has only given up 11 sacks on the season.

Fun Fact: Commonwealth Stadium was completed in 1973, but officially became Kroger Field in 2017. It was the first, and still the only, SEC Stadium to be named after a grocery store. That’s it. That is the only fun fact this week. Sorry, I am on vacation.

So what Happens?: This game is hard to predict, which makes sense with a 3.5 point spread. The reality is these are two eerily similar teams. Both teams have played wildly inconsistent this season. Both have strong run defenses with some susceptibility in the secondary. Both offenses have proven to be very ineffective when you take away their ground game. This game probably comes down to which team can make the other team one dimensional. If you look at their one common opponent (Florida) then you’d certainly have to like the Wildcats in this one. Kentucky looked like a Top 10 team against the Gators, Tennessee looked like a cellar dweller in Gainesville. There is history there between the Vols and Gators though. There is history in this one too. Looking at these teams on paper, I struggle to make a prediction. When uncertain, I fall back on history. Kentucky just seems to make mistakes against Tennessee, often finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Josh Heupel has also looked to have an edge over Mark Stoops’ defense through their first two meetings. I think all of this history remains relevant Saturday night. Look for Tennessee to make a few extra plays, including one on special teams and one with its pass rush, and leave Bi-Lo Stadium with a hard fought win. Vols 27, Cats 23