RTI Game Predictions: Tennessee at Kentucky

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Jack Foster

Both teams enter this matchup looking to get back into the win column. Tennessee lost at Alabama last week and Kentucky lost two straight entering their bye week in ugly fashion.

Getting to the SEC Championship will be nearly impossible for both teams at this point, but a win in this game would mean a lot. Tennessee has Georgia remaining on the schedule, and Kentucky still has to play Alabama. 9-3 has a much nicer ring to it than 8-4.

These two teams match up similarly. Both like to run the ball a lot on offense and have good, not outstanding, offensive lines. Additionally, both starting quarterbacks have underwhelmed.

The biggest disparity is on the defensive line, as the Wildcats have struggled mightily to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks whereas James Pearce Jr. and Tyler Baron have lived in backfields this season.

The key in this game is which team’s rushing attack will be more effective and which quarterback will make less mistakes. Kentucky’s starting running back Ray Davis has been tremendous all year, but I’m confident in Tennessee’s rush defense to not let Davis gash them.

Then at quarterback, Kentucky’s Devin Leary has thrown seven interceptions already in what has been an incredibly disappointing 2023 campaign. Not many quarterbacks in the SEC have been worse than Milton this season, but Leary has.

I’m taking the team that will win in the trenches and have better quarterback play in what should be old-school football game.

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 17

Ric Butler

I think the line is extremely well set for this game. I believe that Tennessee has the matchup advantage when comparing the 11 players on the field at a time but I also believe that Kentucky has a natural advantage by being at home while the Vols have gone 0-2 in their two SEC road games so far this season.

One of the interesting things that I’ll be looking for in this game is to see which underwhelming passing offense can potentially step up this weekend. I don’t give a ton of credit to QB Devin Leary and the Wildcats passing game but I also acknowledge Thursday’s news that Tennessee star cornerback Kamal Hadden will be out for the rest of the season. On the flip side, Tennessee and Joe Milton had some really nice passing moments in the first half of the Alabama game. Let’s see if Tennessee can draw up success similar to the first half in Tuscaloosa.

With the aforementioned passing game struggles from both teams, Tennessee and Kentucky like to run the ball with Jaylen Wright and Ray Davis, respectively. Which defensive front seven is going to step up and make more plays than the other? That’s a question that’ll be answered on Saturday night. That being said, though, Tennessee’s defensive line and rush have been nasty this year and I believe that gives the Vols a nice weapon to combat the offensive scheme that Kentucky will roll out with.

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Kentucky 28

Ryan Schumpert

Tennessee heads to Lexington looking to get back on track after last week’s disappointing loss at Alabama. Both Kentucky and Tennessee are desperate for wins in this one. The Wildcats dropped two straight ahead of last week’s open date and the Vols are looking for their first road win of the season and to keep their record in a solid spot ahead of two challenging November matchups.

This is another game between two teams with struggling quarterback play. Both Tennessee and Kentucky have been reliant on its running game which makes this another line of scrimmage game. The Vols struggled to run the ball with their running backs last week and their two road games are their two worst running performances this season. There’s reason to think that Tennessee will run the ball better than they did against an elite Alabama run defense but it needs to be if the Vols want to sustain offensive success. On the other side, Kentucky’s running success has come in extremely large part due to running back Ray Davis. The Wildcats’ offensive line isn’t bad but they’re not nearly as good of a unit as two years ago when Kentucky ran for 225 yards against Tennessee. There’s an opportunity for Tennessee’s defensive line to flip the game and make Kentucky play in third-and-long. With the Wildcats’ pass protection issues and quarterback struggles, that’s a winning recipe for Tennessee.

Which team can find a consistent passing game could be the difference. Tennessee threw the ball better than they have all season in the first half at Alabama last week. But consistency hasn’t been Joe Milton III’s strength and that success didn’t continue into the second half. Kentucky’s offense has been pretty dreadful throwing the football all season. North Carolina State quarterback transfer Devin Leary has been one of the SEC’s biggest disappointments. But with Kamal Hadden sidelined, Tennessee’s secondary is vulnerable.

It’s been hard for me to get a read of this game but I like Heupel and his teams’ track record of responding well from big wins and losses alike. Tennessee is the more talented team. They earn their first road win of the season.

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Kentucky 20

Matt Reed

This game is hard to predict, which makes sense with a 3.5-point spread. The reality is these are two eerily similar teams. Both teams have played wildly inconsistent this season. Both have strong run defenses with some susceptibility in the secondary. Both offenses have proven to be very ineffective when you take away their ground game.

This game probably comes down to which team can make the other team one-dimensional. If you look at their one common opponent (Florida) then you’d certainly have to like the Wildcats in this one. Kentucky looked like a Top 10 team against the Gators, Tennessee looked like a cellar dweller in Gainesville. There is history there between the Vols and Gators though. There is history in this one, too.

Looking at these teams on paper, I struggle to make a prediction. When uncertain, I fall back on history. Kentucky just seems to make mistakes against Tennessee, often finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Josh Heupel has also looked to have an edge over Mark Stoops’ defense through their first two meetings. I think all of this history remains relevant Saturday night. Look for Tennessee to make a few extra plays, including one on special teams and one with its pass rush, and leave Bi-Lo Stadium with a hard-fought win.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 23