Tale of the Tape: Tennessee @ Kentucky

No. 21 Tennessee football (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is set to travel to Lexington, Kentucky, this weekend to face off against the Kentucky Wildcats (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Vols are looking to get back in the win column after a tough road loss to Alabama last week in which they led by two scores at halftime. Kentucky, however, should enter the matchup fairly fresh as they are coming off a bye week.

Still, the Wildcats have underwhelmed in their last two outings, getting blown out by Georgia, 51-13, before losing at home to Missouri, 38-21. Therefore, both teams will be looking to pull out all the stops to avoid losing their third game of the season.

Let’s take a look at how the Vols matchup against the Wildcats ahead of Saturday’s showdown under the lights.

Quarterback

Tennessee: Joe Milton III

Season stats (7 games):

140 completions on 223 attempts, 1,535 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT, 62.8 comp. %, 219.29 YPG, 10.96 yards per completion

47 rushes, 232 yards, 4 TD, 33.14 yards per game

Where Milton ranks in the SEC:

• 9th in yards
• 7th in completions, 4th in attempts
• 10th in comp. %
• 14th in yards per pass attempt (79th in FBS) (6.88)
• T-5th in TD (12)
• T-3rd in INT (4)
• 11th in QBR (134.77)

Kentucky: Devin Leary

Season stats (7 games):

106 completions on 195 attempts, 1,377 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT, 54.36 comp. %, 196.7 YPG, 12.99 yards per completion

Where Leary ranks in the SEC:

• 10th in yards
• 9th in completions, 6th in attempts
• 14th in comp. %
• 13th in yards per pass attempt (68th in FBS) (7.06)
• T-3rd in TD (14)
• T-1st in INT (7)
• 13th in QBR (130.19)

Advantage: Tennessee

Explanation: Not many quarterbacks have worse numbers than Joe Milton this season in the SEC, but Leary is one of them. The NC State transfer has not lived up to preseason expectations and has been a big reason why Kentucky’s offense has struggled in their past two outings.

Once upon a time, Leary was among college football’s best quarterbacks in 2021 for NC State, but an injury-plagued 2022 has now preceded a very pedestrian 2023 campaign. Due to Leary’s inefficiencies, Tennessee’s primary focus on defense should be shutting down running back Ray Davis rather than paying loads of attention to Leary and the UK passing attack.

Running Back

Tennessee: Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, Dylan Sampson

Tennessee rushing stats (7 games):

• 2nd in SEC with 1,521 rushing yards
• 1st in SEC with 217.29 yards per game
• 3rd in SEC with 5.55 yards per attempt
• 13 rush TD (7th in SEC)

1. Wright: 91 att., 593 yards, 1 TD, 6.5 YPC, 84.71 YPG (2nd in SEC and 12th in FBS in YPC, 4th in SEC in YPG)
   1. Wright receiving: 17 rec., 102 yards, 0 TD, 14.57 YPG (leads all SEC RBs in catches)
2. Small: 73 att., 383 yards, 2 TD, 5.2 YPC, 54.71 YPG
3. Sampson: 49 att., 306 yards, 6 TD, 6.1 YPC (3rd in SEC), 50.17 YPG

Kentucky: Ray Davis, JuTahn McClain

Kentucky rushing stats (7 games):

• 8th in SEC with 1,086 rushing yards
• 6th in SEC with 155.14 yards per game
• 1st in SEC with 5.81 yards per attempt
• 11 rush TD (9th in SEC)

1. Davis: 111 att., 781 yards, 8 TD, 7.0 YPC, 111.6 YPG (2nd in SEC in yards, 1st in SEC and 8th in FBS in YPC, 1st in SEC and 6th in FBS in YPG)
   1. Davis receiving: 15 rec., 193 yards, 5 TD, 27.6 YPG (leads all SEC RBs in rec. yards and TDs)
2. McClain: 25 att., 137 yards, 1 TD, 5.5 YPC, 19.6 YPG

Advantage: Tennessee

Explanation: Kentucky has had the best player of the group so far this season in Ray Davis. Davis’ stats are significantly helped by his 280-yard game against Florida, as he’s only had two other games with 100 yards. But, the numbers don’t lie. He leads the SEC in yards per carry and yards per game and has scored a whopping 13 total touchdowns this season.

However, Tennessee is still leading the SEC in rushing yards per game and has better overall team rushing numbers than Kentucky.

Despite struggling against Alabama last week, Jaylen Wright still has four 100-yard games this year and managed to still make an impact with seven catches against the Tide. Additionally, Tennessee’s complementary options in Small and Sampson are much better than the options backing up Davis for Kentucky.

Both teams are going to try and lean on the run in this game. Davis is clearly Kentucky’s best offensive weapon and has the talent to takeover a game. But when looking at the RB room as a whole, Tennessee’s is better and is still the best in the league.

Pass Catchers

Tennessee: WRs Squirrel White, Ramel Keyton, Dont’e Thornton, TEs Jacob Warren, McCallan Castles

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• White: 39 rec., 416 yards, 1 TD, 10.67 yards per reception, 59.43 YPG
• Keyton: 19 rec., 301 yards, 3 TD, 15.84 yards per reception, 43.00 YPG
• Castles: 11 rec., 136 yards, 2 TD, 13.78 yards per reception, 19.43 YPG
• Thornton: 7 rec., 89 yards, 0 TD, 12.71 yards per reception, 14.83 YPG
• Warren: 9 rec., 75 yards, 3 TD, 8.33 yards per reception, 10.71 YPG

Kentucky: WRs Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key, Barion Brown, TE Jordan Dingle

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• Robinson: 23 rec., 338 yards, 3 TD, 14.7 yards per reception, 48.3 YPG
• Key: 17 rec., 282 yards, 2 TD, 16.6 yards per reception, 40.3 YPG
• Brown: 23 rec., 276 yards, 1 TD, 12 yards per reception, 39.4 YPG
• Dingle: 7 rec., 137 yards, 0 TD, 19.6 yards per reception, 19.6 YPG

Advantage: Tie

Explanation: Neither group of pass-catchers will blow you away with their numbers or play this season. Last week’s outing from Squirrel White was very encouraging for Tennessee, and Ramel Keyton probably made his best play this season.

White is the best player of the group, but Kentucky’s trio of WRs in Robinson, Key and Brown has been more consistent than Tennessee’s pass-catchers. Based on numbers, Kentucky should get the edge, but Squirrel White is the only game-changing player in this group.

Therefore, it’s a tie.

More From RTI: One Positive and One Negative From Tennessee’s Loss at Alabama

Offensive Line

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• Joe Milton sacked 11 times (T-3rd best in the SEC)
  • Tennessee has given up 12 total sacks as a team (1.71 per game)

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• Devin Leary sacked 11 times (T-3rd best in the SEC)
  • Kentucky has given up 11 total sacks as a team (1.57 per game)

Advantage: Tie

Explanation: Both rushing numbers are great for both teams, and neither quarterback has been sacked a lot. As Josh Heupel said earlier this week, this game is going to be won in the trenches like the majority of SEC games are. Kentucky’s offensive line isn’t quite the Big Blue Wall of the past, as there are some weaknesses. But there’s weaknesses on Tennessee’s offensive line too.

Both units are above average, and both teams’ defensive lines will have a tough time sacking the quarterback. One defensive line will make more of an impact in this game (more on that later), but there’s no reason to give either offensive line the edge.

Defensive Line

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• 28 sacks (3rd in SEC & FBS)
• 4.00 sacks per game (2nd in SEC, 3rd in FBS)
• 57 TFL (2nd in SEC, 8th in FBS)
• 8.1 TFL per game (2nd in SEC, 6th in FBS)

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• 16 sacks (9th in SEC & 61st in FBS)
• 2.29 sacks per game (T-8th in SEC, T-58th FBS)
• 44.0 TFL (6th in SEC, T-43rd in FBS)
• 6.3 TFL per game (6th in SEC, T-43rd in FBS)

Advantage: Tennessee

Explanation: This is the most lopsided decision of them all. Tennessee’s defensive line has been among the SEC and FBS’ best this year, with James Pearce Jr. and Tyler Baron living in opponents backfield’s weekly.

Kentucky doesn’t have any guys that anybody on Tennessee should lose sleep over, whereas the Vols have two. As shown earlier, both teams’ offensive lines are really good, but Tennessee’s defensive line will have more of an impact in this game.

Linebackers

Tennessee: Aaron Beasley, Elijah Herring, Arion Carter

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• Beasley: 45 tackles (25 solo), 2 sacks, 8.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 1 QBH
• Herring: 43 tackles (16 solo), 2 TFL, 1 QBH
• Carter: 15 tackles (8 solo), 1 TFL, 1 PBU

Kentucky: D’Eryk Jackson, Trevin Wallace, Daveren Rayner

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• Jackson: 44 tackles (28 solo), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 QB hits,
• Wallace: 31 tackles (20 solo), 3.5 sacks, 5 TFL, 1 INT, 2 QB hits, 1 FF
• Rayner: 19 tackles (13 solo), 2 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 QB hit

Advantage: Kentucky

Explanation: Trevin Wallace and Aaron Beasley have each had strong 2023 campaigns, but the Wildcats get the edge due to Wallace’s sack numbers and the fact their linebacker unit has forced two turnovers compared to Tennessee’s zero.

Linebacker play will be really important in this game, too, as each team has an elite running back.

Secondary

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• 36th in FBS in Opp. Passing YPG (201.0)
• 7 INT (1 pick six) (T-6th in SEC)
• 22 pass deflections (T-8th in SEC)
• 9th in FBS in yards per completion (9.77)
• 34th in FBS in pass efficiency defense

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• 107th in FBS in Opp. Passing YPG (201.0)
• 7 INT (2 pick sixes) (T-6th in SEC)
• 19 pass deflections (T-12th in SEC)
• 101st in FBS in yards per completion (10.45)
• 85th in FBS in pass efficiency defense

Notable player stats:

Tennessee:

CB Kamal Hadden: 3 INT (3rd in SEC), 8 PBU, 11 passes defended (3rd in FBS)

Kentucky:

CB Maxwell Hairston: 44 tackles (co-leads team), 5 INT (1st in SEC), 3 PBU, 1 FF

Advantage: Tennessee

Explanation: Maxwell Hairston has been a ball hawk this season, but the Wildcats’ passing defense has been pretty dreadful. And a lot of that is because of the nonexistent pass rush, but Tennessee still gets the edge here as having been a pretty solid pass defense. Plus, the Vols’ secondary has only struggled against really good wide receivers this season, something Kentucky is lacking.

Special Teams

Tennessee: PR & KR Dee Williams

Tennessee stats (7 games):

• Williams punt returns: 11 returns, 195 yards (2nd in SEC), 16.25 AVG (3rd in SEC), 1 TD, 55 long
• Williams kick returns: 6 returns, 128 yards, 21.33 AVG (6th in SEC), 34 long

Kentucky: KR/PR Barion Brown, KR/PR Tayvion Robinson, 

Kentucky stats (7 games):

• Brown punt returns: 3 returns, 51 yards, 17.0 AVG, 40 long
• Brown kick returns: 7 returns, 214 yards, 1 TD, 30.6 AVG
• Robinson punt returns: 3 returns, 20 yards
• Robinson kick returns: 4 returns, 44 yards

Tennessee: K Charles Campbell and P Jackson Ross

• Campbell: 11/13 on FGs (0-2 50+, 1/1 40-49)
• Ross: 29 punts, 1,270 yards, 43.79 yards per punt, 71 long, 3 touchbacks, 12 inside the 20, 7 punts of 50+

Kentucky: K Alex Raynor, P Wilson Berry

• Raynor: 6/6 on FGs (1/1 50+, 3/3 40-49)
• Berry: 28 punts, 1123 yards, 40.1 yards per punt, 2 touchbacks, 7 inside the 20, 6 punts of 50+

Advantage: Tennessee

Explanation: Dee Williams’ explosiveness sends Tennessee over the edge here, and Jackson Ross has been incredible as of late in the punt game. Kentucky does have the kickoff return touchdown, however, and their kicker, despite less attempts, has been more impressive.

Total Score:

Tennessee: 5

Kentucky: 1