Tennessee football is looking to cap off a three-game home stand with its third straight win as the Vols host Texas A&M to Neyland Stadium Saturday afternoon. The Vols are three-point favorites over Texas A&M in a SEC cross-division showdown.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s weekly opponent.
We move on to the Texas A&M Aggies.
More From RTI: More Opportunities Await Tennessee’s Pass Rush Against Texas A&M
Jack Foster
South Carolina was a big game for Tennessee to get back on track and pick up their first SEC win, but this Texas A&M is a bigger opportunity for Tennessee to show they are still a top tier SEC team.
A&M is one of the toughest opponents, probably third, Tennessee will play all season. The Aggies have one of the nation’s best front sevens, as they are No. 1 in the nation in TFLs and No. 2 in sacks. They’ve done a tremendous job at stopping the run all season, ranking first in rush defense in the SEC.
But Tennessee’s rushing offense is first in the SEC. So which will give?
My money would be on Tennessee’s running backs winning that battle. A&M hasn’t faced a team that has a three-headed monster like Tennessee. Even if one struggles, one of Tennessee’s three backs will be able to find some success Saturday.
Furthermore, Tennessee may not need the run game all that much. A&M has allowed Tyler Van Dyke and Jalen Milroe to throw for 300+ yards and multiple scores this season. The matchup sets up for Joe Milton to potentially have his best statistical game of the season.
Tennessee gets Texas A&M at a good time. The Aggies are coming off a close loss to Alabama and are reeling a bit, whereas the Vols are coming off a bye, and Josh Heupel is 7-1 coming off bye weeks.
I like Tennessee in this matchup. The rosters are similar in talent level, the Aggies don’t have a clear advantage at quarterback or anywhere offensively for that matter, and the Vols’ pass rush can be just as effective as A&M’s. Plus, this game is being played in Neyland Stadium, which is always a huge factor.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 21
Ric Butler
I want to start out with two things that I haven’t been able to get out of my head this week. For one, Josh Heupel’s teams are excellent coming off of the bye week or some sort of extended period of time to prepare for the opponent. Number two, Tennessee has a long winning streak at home while Texas A&M is looking for their first true road win since the 2021 season. The bye-week point is stronger, in my opinion, but both are still fascinating heading into the game this Saturday.
We talked about how the South Carolina game was a collection of strength-on-weakness matchups around the field. Well, not in this game. We will see strength-vs-strength this weekend on Rocky Top when Tennessee’s dynamic and deep run game meets head-to-head with Texas A&M’s impressive front seven. The Aggies are going to make it difficult to run the ball, but it’s important for Tennessee to figure out how to get the running backs the ball in space. With Bru McCoy out, I’m not doubting the backup receivers that will be in, but I do think that getting the ball in the hands of Sampson and White can be critical in closing that production gap.
I like Max Johnson as a quarterback. Numbers don’t pop or anything but hey, he’s got guts and heart. That being said, though, Johnson did start the season as the backup and has deficiencies in his game. Johnson has been noted to hold onto the ball too long in some situations, which could bode well for Tennessee’s pass rush.
I look at third down being a big, big part of this game. It’s about staying out of third and long on offense and getting off the field on third down on defense.
This is Tennessee’s biggest game of the season and starts what will certainly be a challenging October slate followed by Alabama and Kentucky. It’s important to get a win here. And in front of the home fans? I think it happens.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 28
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee football can officially get its season fully back on track after last month’s loss at Florida by earning its second SEC win of the season against Texas A&M before entering a challenging two-game road trip to Alabama and Kentucky. It’s an important game for Tennessee to remain in the SEC East race but perhaps even more important for Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies as they look to avoid a 4-3 start to the season. There’s an interesting dichotomy in how I view this game.
On the bad side for Tennessee, I don’t think this is a great matchup. Texas A&M’s defense is stiff against the run and has the pass rushers to prey on a shaky Volunteer offensive line and get to Joe Milton III— whose pocket presence isn’t a strength. The recipe to give Tennessee’s offense issues is to stop the run and force the Vols into third-and-long. Tennessee has been bad on third downs this season but particularly on third-and-longs. Texas A&M is far from a perfect football team but they are built to do just that.
But the exterior circumstances all point in Tennessee’s advantage. The Vols are coming off an open date well rested and Josh Heupel coached teams are fantastic in that spot. In his five-plus years as a head coach, Heupel’s teams are 7-1 coming off open dates averaging 45 points while never scoring less than 34 points. If Tennessee scores 34 points against Texas A&M they will win. On the other side, Texas A&M is coming off three-straight SEC games including a mental and physically exhausting loss last week against Alabama. It’s not just the schedule lead up either. The Vols have been fantastic at Neyland Stadium the last two seasons while Texas A&M has struggled badly on the road. The Aggies have lost seven-straight true road games and haven’t earned a road ranked win since 2014. All the exterior factors point to Tennessee earning a comfortable victory.
So it’s hard to come to a conclusion about this matchup. But I think Tennessee is a slightly better team straight up. When you add in Heupel’s success with time to build an offensive plan and the Aggies road struggles it outweighs the matchup concerns for Tennessee. Heupel schemes a few receivers open for big plays down the field and the Vols improve to 5-1 (2-1 SEC).
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 23
Matt Reed
Texas A&M defensive coordinator DJ Durkin gambled against Alabama last weekend.
The Aggies brought constant pressure against Jalen Milroe, daring him to make throws downfield. The pressure worked to some extent, A&M sacked Milroe six times. However Durkin stuck mostly with man-to-man coverage with a single high safety, and Milroe made them pay. He and Jermaine Burton had a field day against a suspect Aggie secondary. Does Durkin employ a similar strategy against Joe Milton this weekend? It would make sense. Durkin is a pretty well-known commodity in college football by now, and he likes to bring pressure. We saw it the last time he coached inside Neyland Stadium. His Ole Miss defense hounded Hendon Hooker all night, and ultimately knocked him out of the game. Hooker was able to make plays with his legs though, and connect on a few deep balls. We have not seen much of either from Joe Milton so far this year. The Aggies are going to get to Milton. Tennessee may have allowed only six sacks on the season, but Texas A&M will get in the backfield plenty on Saturday. Milton has to make plays when that happens. The Vols have gone literally from first to worst in terms of long passing plays this season. That trend has to change for Tennessee to have a chance against its next two opponents.
Defensively I would expect a similar game plan to what we saw against South Carolina. Tim Banks will bring pressure, and Max Johnson is a quarterback who can hold on to the ball too long at times. Maybe Tennessee’s defensive front has some extra motivation this week. All of the talk is about Texas A&M’s dominant defensive line, however the Vols actually lead the conference in sacks per game at 4.40. Tennessee needs continued production from Tyler Baron and James Pearce. Texas A&M road woes are well documented. They have been abysmal on the road in recent years, but you somewhat expect that from a young team. Tennessee’s Over/Under win total this season was 9 wins, most places had Texas A&M at 8.5. The winner of this game is still in decent shape to meet or exceed those numbers. The loser is not though. We can expect a pretty big disparity from Tennessee on the road versus at home. With three tough road games remaining, it is paramount that the Vols hold serve at home. Josh Heupel’s record inside Neyland Stadium has been tremendous. Jimbo Fisher has really struggled on the road at Texas A&M. Both of those facts have been well-documented this week. I keep going back to the magic number of 30 though. Heupel is now 22-3 when scoring 30+ at Tennessee, and 0-6 when failing to score 30. I expect a few wrinkles coming out of the bye week for Tennessee, and that will be just enough to eclipse that 30-point mark. Joe Milton finds a few splash plays in the passing game and makes a few first downs with his legs.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 27
