The Opponent: Texas A&M University was founded in 1876, formerly the Agricultural and Mechanical College of Texas. With over 70,000 total students, it is the largest university in the United States in terms of campus enrollment. Texas A&M started playing football in 1894. Tennessee is 2-2 all-time against the Aggies. Their last meeting turned out to be Jeremy Pruitt’s last game coaching the Vols. The Aggies rolled over Tennessee 34-13 in front of a small COVID crowd in late December to cap off an 8-1 regular season before an Orange Bowl win. The Aggies’ success in 2020 caused the school to raise and extend an already lucrative contract for Jimbo Fisher. This will be Texas A&M’s first game inside Neyland Stadium at full capacity.
Are they good?: Yes, Texas A&M is a good team. While they already have two losses, very few rosters in college football are as star-studded as the Aggies. There is a lot of talent in College Station and a lot of quality coaching experience. The Aggies had a down year last season. They were breaking in a lot of young players from their #1 ranked recruiting class. This season you are seeing a lot of those young players coming into their own, especially along the defensive front. The Aggies have two very nice receivers with Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart. There is a lot of talent on this team. It may not be a fully formed and confident bunch yet, but the Aggies are still a very solid team.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: This is arguably the first good SEC team that Tennessee will face. Both Florida and South Carolina may struggle to reach bowl eligibility. Texas A&M is a more complete team than either the Gators or the Gamecocks. A win would move Tennessee close to the Top 15 heading into a showdown in Tuscaloosa. I suspect this game will also tell us a lot about the legitimacy of Tennessee’s run game. The Vols rank first in the SEC with 230 yards per game, but there is no denying those numbers are padded from a softer schedule. South Carolina has a below-average run defense, and the Vols were stymied on the road in Gainesville. Texas A&M presents Tennessee with its biggest challenge to date, and maybe its biggest challenge of the year. The Aggies are giving up just 84 yards on the ground per game. That is close to the level of Georgia’s run defense these past several years. Saturday will tell us how real Tennessee’s ground game is.
What does Vegas Say: This line opened at Tennessee -3.5 and has not moved much throughout the week. It sits at -3 at most books right now. Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS this season, whereas Tennessee is 3-2. Tennessee is getting at least 3 points here for home-field advantage. On a neutral site, this game is probably very close to a pick ’em. It has been two years since Texas A&M has won a true road game (0-7 during that stretch), and Jimbo Fisher-led teams have lost their last nine road games against ranked opponents. Does that history factor into the spread at all this weekend?
Matchup to watch on Offense: First down play calling. Saturday is a strength-on-strength match-up. Tennessee leads the SEC in over 230 yards per game rushing and over 6 yards per carry. The Aggies defense leads the SEC with only 84 yards surrendered on the ground per game, and less than 3 yards per carry. There is a wide gap between each team’s averages. Texas A&M gave up only 23 yards net rushing to Alabama last weekend in a loss. I will be watching Tennessee’s first down play calling on Saturday. Josh Heupel wants to run the football, and needs to go in with that mindset. Just as important though, Tennessee has to stay ahead of the chains Saturday afternoon. Zero to two-yard gains on first down are a poor ingredient for any offense, although Tennessee has to stay patient with the ground game. I pointed out in my South Carolina preview that Tennessee is 1-4 under Josh Heupel in SEC games where they throw the ball more than they run it. The opposite play calling is 10-3. Texas A&M wants to make Tennessee one-dimensional, and they have the personnel to do it. It is no surprise that Texas A&M leads the SEC with 26 sacks through six games. That includes 20 total sacks through three SEC games. The Aggies’ run defense allows them to regularly put opponents in obvious passing situations. They were able to sack Jalen Milroe six times last weekend. It starts on first down for Tennessee though. Play calling needs to be solid to keep Tennessee out of third and longs.
More from RTI: Gary Danielson: Neyland Stadium ‘Just About the Same’ as Other SEC Stadiums
Matchup to watch on Defense: Linebacker play. Tennessee’s young linebackers held up fairly well against South Carolina. It was probably Elijah Herring’s most complete game to date. True freshmen Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander each played a dozen meaningful snaps, and contributed with five total tackles and one TFL. Both freshmen will continue to play, as Tim Banks rotates his defense to keep players fresh. Elijah Herring will start, and be expected to play 40+ snaps each week. Say what you will about him, but Bobby Petrino is a sharp offensive mind. Sharp offensive minds tend to create mismatches, and I expect Petrino to test Tennessee’s young linebackers Saturday afternoon. I expect Petrino to try to match up Tennessee’s linebackers on tight end Jake Johnson, younger brother of quarterback Max Johnson. You will probably see plenty of 11 personnel from Texas A&M; one back, one tight end, and three wide receivers. That will require either a safety or linebacker to cover the tight end, with either being a matchup that the Aggies could exploit. I think you will also see more pre-snap motion from the Aggies, trying to get younger players out of position. Thus far, Petrino’s offense at Texas A&M has not been too exotic. It is fairly effective though. The Aggies are well-balanced and don’t give up many negative yardage plays. They are solid on third down and in the red zone. It is a well-coached group with a veteran quarterback in Max Johnson. This is not an outstanding offense though. Tennessee can create negative plays against this offense, especially when the home crowd gets into the game. On the flip side, the Vols can’t have mental lapses that give A&M easy first downs. It is a big game for Tennessee’s young linebackers as the Vols look to play sound defense at home.
Fun Fact: Texas A&M is one of six designated senior military colleges in the country, schools not directly affiliated with any specific military branch but with large ROTC programs. The Texas A&M Corps of Cadets has an estimated 2,500 members. They also have the only mounted cavalry unit of any ROTC program in America. Is that totally necessary? Who knows. It does feel a tad cheesy, but this is the school that gives us the cringiest tradition in college football. To be fair here, I polled several veteran friends before writing this section. Are ROTC cadets fair game for mockery? According to their own literature, an estimated 40% of Texas A&M cadets go on to serve in a US military branch. I have a tremendous amount of respect for those men and women, and appreciate their service. The question remains though, what are the other 60% doing? I liked to play dress up as a kid, but generally grew out of that phase around the age of 7-8. I suppose there are several things about College Station that don’t make sense to me, though.
So What Happens?: Texas A&M defensive coordinator DJ Durkin gambled against Alabama last weekend. The Aggies brought constant pressure against Jalen Milroe, daring him to make throws downfield. The pressure worked to some extent, A&M sacked Milroe six times. However Durkin stuck mostly with man-to-man coverage with a single high safety, and Milroe made them pay. He and Jermaine Burton had a field day against a suspect Aggie secondary. Does Durkin employ a similar strategy against Joe Milton this weekend? It would make sense. Durkin is a pretty well-known commodity in college football by now, and he likes to bring pressure. We saw it the last time he coached inside Neyland Stadium. His Ole Miss defense hounded Hendon Hooker all night, and ultimately knocked him out of the game. Hooker was able to make plays with his legs though, and connect on a few deep balls. We have not seen much of either from Joe Milton so far this year. The Aggies are going to get to Milton. Tennessee may have allowed only six sacks on the season, but Texas A&M will get in the backfield plenty on Saturday. Milton has to make plays when that happens. The Vols have gone literally from first to worst in terms of long passing plays this season. That trend has to change for Tennessee to have a chance against its next two opponents. Defensively I would expect a similar game plan to what we saw against South Carolina. Tim Banks will bring pressure, and Max Johnson is a quarterback who can hold on to the ball too long at times. Maybe Tennessee’s defensive front has some extra motivation this week. All of the talk is about Texas A&M’s dominant defensive line, however the Vols actually lead the conference in sacks per game at 4.40. Tennessee needs continued production from Tyler Baron and James Pearce. Texas A&M road woes are well documented. They have been abysmal on the road in recent years, but you somewhat expect that from a young team. Tennessee’s Over/Under win total this season was 9 wins, most places had Texas A&M at 8.5. The winner of this game is still in decent shape to meet or exceed those numbers. The loser is not though. We can expect a pretty big disparity from Tennessee on the road versus at home. With three tough road games remaining, it is paramount that the Vols hold serve at home. Josh Heupel’s record inside Neyland Stadium has been tremendous. Jimbo Fisher has really struggled on the road at Texas A&M. Both of those facts have been well-documented this week. I keep going back to the magic number of 30 though. Heupel is now 22-3 when scoring 30+ at Tennessee, and 0-6 when failing to score 30. I expect a few wrinkles coming out of the bye week for Tennessee, and that will be just enough to eclipse that 30-point mark. Joe Milton finds a few splash plays in the passing game and makes a few first downs with his legs. Vols 31, Aggies 27
