Three Reasons Tennessee Football Could Overachieve In 2023

Tennessee football is less than three weeks away from opening its 2023 season against Virginia in Nashville. The Vols have high expectations entering Josh Heupel’s third season, coming in right outside the top 10 in the Preseason AP Poll.

Las Vegas sportsbooks have almost consensually set Tennessee football’s regular season over/under win total at 9 entering the season. But could the Vols’ overachieve in the win column for the second straight season?

We’ll take a look at reasons why Tennessee could underachieve later in the week but for now let’s look at three reasons why the Vols could overachieve in 2023.

Defensive Line Propels Defense To Another Level

Tennessee’s dominant offense was rightfully the story of the 2022 Vols but the defense also took a sizable step forward in Tim Banks’ second season as defensive coordinator.

The Vols have continued to add more defensive talent and depth, but are they still a year away from taking a jump in to the top of the SEC?

The most realistic path to Tennessee’s defense taking another step forward is the Vols’ defensive line continuing to improve. Tennessee has a number of good returning defensive linemen from last season’s team. That defensive line gave Tennessee a strong run defense a season ago.

But that room hasn’t had an great or elite players. But there’s a handful of veterans (Omari Thomas, Tyler Baron and Elijah Simmons) that are capable of making that jump while transfer defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott and sophomore LEO Josh Josephs are capable of making sizable jumps forward.

A couple players take a strong step forward and Tennessee’s defensive line is near the top of the SEC. That would give the Vols’ pass rush a major step which feels like the most realistic way for Tennessee’s pass defense to go from one of the nation’s worst to middle of the pack in the SEC.

Defensive line coach Rodney Garner said his defensive line is getting closer to looking like an elite defensive line. Football is won in the trenches and the Vols’ defensive line could bolster defensive improvements.

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Tennessee’s Run Game Develops Into One Of The SEC’s Best

Josh Heupel is quick to remind people that the secret sauce that makes Tennessee’s offense successful is its running game. And there’s plenty of reasons to think Tennessee’s running game could be elite this season.

The Vols’ three top running backs are all back while junior Jaylen Wright and sophomore Dylan Sampson have high level talent and big play potential. Tennessee’s offensive line did lose a pair of starters from last season and there are questions about it entering the season.

But most of those questions revolve around the offensive tackles and pass protection as a whole. Seniors Javontez Spraggins and Cooper Mays are both high level run blockers and Third Team Preseason All-SEC selections.

If Joe Milton III can’t play at or very close to the extremely high level Hendon Hooker did a season ago, the Vols’ running game could help make up for the lost offensive production in the passing game.

Two running backs that have elite ceilings, a third veteran running back (Jabari Small) who is reliable and great in short yard situations, freshmen talent providing real depth at running back and a strong interior offensive line. That’s a good combination for an elite running game.

Joe Milton III Plays At An Elite Level

Most pundits believe Tennessee’s offense will take a step back this season because Joe Milton III can’t perform at the same level Hendon Hooker did. That’s a fair argument to make. Hooker was elite last season and even in Milton’s best collegiate performance (the Orange Bowl) he wasn’t as effective as Hooker.

But maybe Milton plays up to the potential that made him a highly sought after high school recruit and a transfer prospect Heupel quickly took too.

Milton has all the tools to be a high level quarterback and if he puts it all together the Vols’ offense could be just as good as it was last season.

It’s a simple point to make but football is a quarterback driven sport and Tennessee’s offense is a quarterback driven offense. Sure the run game could propel it to strong numbers this season, but Milton playing at a high level is Tennessee’s best chance not to take a step back from last season.