The Tennessee Vols were likely within one game of making the College Football Playoff last season. Had it not been for the 63-38 loss against South Carolina, Tennessee would have had as strong of an argument as any to be one of the last four teams with the exception of Georgia. Instead, the Volunteers finished sixth and had to settle for a 31-14 victory over Clemson in the Orange Bowl. With the 2023 season kicking off soon, it’s time to evaluate the Tennessee Vols College Football Playoff odds.
Tennessee Vols College Football Playoff Odds 2023
Despite coming off of the best season the school has had in years, Tennessee is not held in high regard by oddsmakers. The Vols are just inside of the top 20 teams on the odds boards released by the major online sportsbooks. Here is a look at Tennessee’s odds at several of those sportsbooks.
- DraftKings: Yes +700 | No -1200
- BetRivers: Yes +800 | No -1430
- FanDuel: Yes +1300
Although the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook give the Vols more of a chance, they still aren’t a top 10 team on the sportsbook’s list. It may not be what fans want to hear, but there are various reasons why the Vols face such high odds to make the CFP in 2023.
What’s Ahead for Tennessee in 2023?
QB Uncertainty
Another major concern for the Vols’ playoff odds is the uncertainty of their starting QB. Joe Milton III will start under center. Many pundits and analysts expect an outstanding season from him, as he was named to the Maxwell Award Watch List for the upcoming season. The good news is that he has seen quality paying time already thanks to starting the Orange Bowl against Clemson last year.
However, Clemson’s defense pales in comparison to that of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, neither of which he has seen the likes of yet. The jury is still out on Milton III’s production, which makes it hard to trust if the Vols will be able to continue the level of play from last year that helped re-elevate the program back into the national spotlight.
It’s not lost on college football fans that Tennessee beat Alabama last year in a shootout, dominated LSU and Florida, and gave Georgia one of its few scares in 2022. However, former QB Hendon Hooker’s stat lines in those games were:
- Alabama: 21-30, 385 years, five touchdowns
- LSU: 17-27, 239 yards, two touchdowns
- Georgia: 22-33, 195 yards
- Florida: 22-28, 349 yards, two touchdowns
Even if Milton III performs up to his hype, expecting Hooker’s level of production against the quality of defenses the aforementioned programs produce year in and year out is a tall task. That’s especially given that Milton III will have to do it without Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman, who accounted for nearly 40% of Tennessee’s receiving yards, despite Tillman missing a significant chunk of the season. He’ll also have to do it without as strong of an offensive line thanks to Jerome Carvin and Darnell Wright moving on to the NFL. Wright’s departure will undoubtedly be felt, as he didn’t allow a single sack in 2022 on over 500 pass block attempts, which earned him the 10th overall selection in the NFL Draft.
Tough Schedule
Among the biggest concerns for Tennessee is its gauntlet of a schedule. This year, the Vols will face Florida and Alabama on the road, and Texas A&M and Georgia at home. That’s in addition to South Carolina, which o defeated them handily last year. It’s difficult to see them getting through those five games without two to three losses, which given the rest of the field, will be too many losses to secure a spot. When you’re in the toughest conference in the nation, being good is not enough. Exceptionalism is required, and the Vols haven’t quite reached that standard.
Final Thought on the Vols
Milton would have to put himself in Heisman contention to overcome the losses on offense and the Vols’ schedule this season. The safest bet for Tennessee’s season is 11-2 with losses to Alabama and Georgia.
Other potential upsets to look out for are against Florida on the road, where it has lost nine straight, and against the South Carolina Gamecocks, who demolished them in their last meeting.
