There are 11 March Madness games remaining with the Sweet 16 wrapping up on Friday, March 24. Only two No. 1 seeds remain in the tournament and both are in action tonight. Can Princeton become the second No. 15 seed ever to advance to the Elite 8?
Here are the best bets for Friday’s Sweet 16 games.
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Best Bets for Sweet 16 Games on Friday, March 24
Below you will find the best bets for Friday’s March Madness matchups as well as where to find the best odds across the top online sportsbooks as of March 24.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State | 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS
Both Alabama and San Diego State are defensively-sound teams, ranking third and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, respectively. The Aztecs have allowed 63.1 points per game with Alabama at 68.2.
The main difference between the two? Alabama ranks 10th in KenPom’s strength of schedule rating while the Aztecs are 47th.
The Crimson Tide allow the second-lowest overall field goal percentage as well as the third-lowest three-point percentage. With the spread currently sitting at 7.5 points in favor of Alabama, it could get ugly for SDSU if it is forced to take low-percentage shots.
Best bet for Alabama vs. San Diego State: Under 137.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Miami | 7:15 p.m. ET on CBS
After cruising through the regular season, Houston is starting to show some signs it may not be entirely invincible. After beating No. 16 Northern Kentucky by nine points in the opening round, Houston needed to overcome a 10-point deficit to Auburn to make it to the Sweet 16.
While the Cougars rank first in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, their strength of schedule comes in at 91st, calling their quality of opponents into question.
Although Miami ranks only above Princeton in adjusted efficiency margin of the teams still remaining, the Hurricanes rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and will pose one of the biggest tests of the season for Houston.
While I’m not bold enough to take Miami straight up, I do like taking the points. On the season, the Hurricanes have covered 58.8% of their games and are 7-2 (77.8%) against the spread as underdogs.
Best bet for Houston vs. Miami: Miami +7.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton | 9 p.m. ET on TBS
Just like all of us drew it up, right?
Princeton is the fourth No. 15 seed in NCAA tournament history to head to the Sweet 16, and Creighton will be looking to advance to its first Elite 8 ever.
Princeton is the clear outlier here as the Tigers rank 91st in adjusted efficiency margin. Of the 12 teams left in March Madness, only two are outside of the top 24 in adjusted efficiency and Miami is still in the top 35.
Creighton ranks top 25 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency and has faced much stiffer competition, as its strength of schedule ranks 12th compared to Princeton at 174th.
Although Creighton hasn’t been great against the spread this year, I’m fading the public and taking Creighton -9.5.
Public teams in Sweet 16 at @BetMGM
+60%🎟️:
67% on Princeton +9.5
64% on UConn -4.5
63% on Miami +7.5+60% 💰:
66% on UConn -4.5
62% on Miami +7.5— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) March 23, 2023
Best bet for Creighton vs. Princeton: Creighton -9.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier | 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS
After dominating Colgate in the opening round, the Longhorns beat No. 10 Penn State by five points despite the Nittany Lions hitting less than 29% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Penn State also had no answer for Dylan Disu, as the big man scored at will and went for 28 points and 10 rebounds.
Xavier, however, does have a physical presence under the basket to keep Disu in check. Xavier also holds the sixth-best field goal percentage and fifth-best three-point percentage.
The Musketeers keep this one close and cover once again as underdogs (7-3-1 ATS) against the Longhorns in the final Sweet 16 game.
Best bet for Texas vs. Xavier: Xavier +4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Article contributed by Cody Kutzer.
