NFL Conference Championship Sunday is upon us and with the Super Bowl on the horizon, I’ll try to help you pad your bankroll for the biggest betting event of the year. Prop bets are my favorite type of wager, so I’ll be giving you my favorite player props for the AFC and NFC Championship games. Let’s dig in.
Best NFL Player Props for the Conference Championships
Last week, I went 2-for-4. We hit on the Under on Joe Burrow’s passing prop and the Over on Miles Sanders’ rushing yardage. The misses were with Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns and over on Deebo Samuel’s rushing prop at 14.5 yards. Mahomes ended up throwing for two touchdowns despite hobbling around with his ankle injury and Deebo Samuel had 15 rushing yards before taking his last carry for a loss.
These prop bets below and many others are available at all of the top sports betting apps.
Let’s go game-by-game and find some favorable lines to take advantage of.
NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 3 p.m. ET (FOX)
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 touchdown passes: (+110) on FanDuel Sportsbook
I’m going back to the well on a touchdown prop with plus odds. The 49ers’ front seven and run defense might be the best in the league. On the flip side, Philadelphia has one of the best rushing attacks, but we’ve seen Eagles’ coach Nick Sirianni be willing to go more pass-heavy if there’s an edge to be had. That’s exactly what we have here.
The Eagles have played six games against teams in the top-10 in success rate against the run (SF is 2nd).
In those games PHI has dropped back on 59.3% of their plays and 68.6% of their snaps in the 1st half.
Against everyone else, they have a 54.2% DB rate and a 60.8% 1H rate.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) January 24, 2023
On paper, the 49ers’ passing defense looks nearly as good as their rush defense. The problem, however, is the fact San Francisco hasn’t faced many strong passing offenses. In fact, the 49ers have only gone up against four offenses that finished in the top 10 in passing yards during the regular season. Their defense has surrendered multi-touchdown games against subpar quarterbacks such as Jarrett Stidham, Taylor Heinicke, and Marcus Mariota.
As a bonus, the 49ers quietly gave up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers during the regular season. In their two playoff games, they’ve given up big days to D.K. Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb. I like taking a shot on the receiving totals for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but I’ll just take the guy distributing the ball at plus odds for my official pick.
Bet this prop on FanDuel Sportsbook and claim $150 in bonus bets
Brock Purdy under 234.5 passing and rushing yards: (-115) on DraftKings Sportsbook
At the time of this writing, Purdy’s passing yardage prop is sitting at 222.5 at its highest. I’m combining the rushing yards here to give myself more wiggle room. Purdy has double-digit rushing yards in just one of his games this year, topping out at 16 yards. Mr. Irrelevant has surpassed this total three times in seven starts and has a brutal matchup ahead of him.
The Eagles’ defense leads the league in pass DVOA, gave up the fewest passing yards per game during the regular season at 179.8, the fewest adjusted yards per pass attempt, and the second-fewest yards per completion.
Bet this prop at DraftKings Sportsbook and claim a free $50 bet plus a 20% deposit match
AFC Championship: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Travis Kelce Over 75.5 receiving yards: (-125) on PointsBet Sportsbook
I can just say it’s Travis Kelce and move on, right? The sure-fire Hall of Famer has cleared this line in 10 games this season. The Bengals have actually done a great job at limiting Kelce in recent matchups, but Cincinnati has given up production to the position all season to the tune of 924 yards in the regular season, the ninth-most in the NFL.
The Bengals have allowed four tight ends to clear this total this year (and another game at exactly 75) and in the playoffs gave up 73 yards to Mark Andrews and 65 yards to Dawson Knox.
With questions about how mobile Patrick Mahomes will be, Kelce should be leaned on early and often as Mahomes’ security blanket and clear top target.
If PointsBet isn’t available in your state, FanDuel has this at 77.5.
Bet this prop at PointsBet Sportsbook and claim up to $2,000 in second-chance bets
T.J. Edwards Over 9.5 tackles and assists: (+110) on BetMGM Sportsbook
This is a hefty number, but as the signal caller on Philadelphia’s defense, Edwards rarely leaves the field. Edwards, a linebacker, has cleared this nine times this season, including in three of his last four games. San Francisco has also seen seven linebackers hit this total against them this year.
The Eagles’ are much more susceptible on the ground versus through the air and I think we see Kyle Shanahan call a conservative game as long as he can in an attempt to play the keep-away game.
Bet this prop at BetMGM Sportsbook and claim a first-bet offer worth up to $1,000
Article contributed by Cody Kutzer
