To say the 2022-2023 NFL season has been up-and-down for the Cleveland Browns would be an understatement. If you look up “rollercoaster” in the dictionary, you would see a picture of the Browns’ playoffs odds starting from this offseason up until today.
Of the AFC teams that could still make the playoffs (the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos have been eliminated), Cleveland is only ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers. Can the Cleveland Browns still make the playoffs? Let’s see if there is a path to the postseason for Cleveland.
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Cleveland Browns Playoff Odds
As we head into Week 15, here are where the Browns’ playoff odds stand according to DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook.
- DraftKings +2200
- BetMGM +2500
The odds, which are also available at other online sportsbooks, above are a massive swing from where Cleveland sat directly following the Deshaun Watson trade in the offseason. Up until the suspension rumors started swirling, the Browns were AFC North favorites and had playoff odds as short as -150. Even at the beginning of the season, the Browns had odds as low as +130.
Fast forward to now, with four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, and the Browns are 5-8 and tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. That puts Cleveland two wins behind the New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, and New York Jets.
If the playoffs were to start today, the Patriots would be in the final playoff spot with the Chargers and the Jets on the outside looking in.
We can convert Cleveland’s sportsbook odds into an implied probability of making the playoffs. At +2500 and +2200 odds, this comes out to a 3.85% and 4.35% implied probability, respectively.
FiveThirtyEight, which runs 50,000 simulations on a weekly basis to determine playoffs and Super Bowl odds, currently gives Cleveland a 0.7% chance to make it to the postseason.
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Cleveland Browns Remaining Schedule
Here is how the rest of the season looks for Cleveland, including Week 15:
- vs. Baltimore Ravens
- vs. New Orleans Saints
- at Washington Commanders
- at Pittsburgh Steelers
On the plus side for Cleveland, its remaining schedule is pretty friendly. The Ravens will likely be starting their third-string quarterback as Lamar Jackson is dealing with a knee injury and backup Tyler Huntley suffered a concussion last week. The Saints and Steelers have struggled all year. Washington is the only matchup remaining which poses a significant test.
FiveThirtyEight has a game selector with which you can choose results for games. Without adjusting for other teams, the FiveThirtyEight gives Cleveland a 5% chance to make the playoffs if they were to win out.
If the Patriots go 1-3 to finish the season, the Browns jump up to a 10% chance.
For Cleveland to really have any chance, however, Browns fans need to root for the Los Angeles Chargers to completely collapse over the final four weeks. Even with the Patriots, Jets, Jaguars, and Raiders finishing with a losing record, any semblance of decent play from the Chargers keeps them out.
Unfortunately for Cleveland faithful and members of the ‘Dawg Pound’, there’s no silver lining to a poor finish to the season. Because of the Watson trade, the Browns are without a first-round selection in both 2023 and 2024.
