The Tennessee Volunteers (26-7 SU, 20-13 ATS) enter the NCAA Tournament on a high after winning the program’s first SEC Tournament title in 43 years. Thursday afternoon, the team will get its March Madness journey underway with a first-round matchup against the Big South champion Longwood Lancers (26-6 SU, 19-9 ATS).
While the Vols are heavy favorites at Tennessee sportsbooks, it is not unusual for a No. 14 seed to win a first-round game. It has happened 22 times since 1985. Abilene Christian took down Texas last year, 53-52. However, that is the only win by a No. 14 seed in the last three tournaments.
Could Longwood make it happen this year?
March Madness Betting Odds For Tennessee Vs. Longwood
| Sportsbook | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Tennessee -16.5 (-110) Longwood +16.5 (-110) | Tennessee -3000 Longwood +1200 | Over 132.5 (-110) Under 132.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -17.5 (+100) Longwood +17.5 (-120) | Tennessee -2500 Longwood +1200 | Over 132 (-115) Under 132 (-105) |
| FanDuel | Tennessee -17 (-110) Longwood +17 (-110) | Tennessee -3500 Longwood +1280 | Over 132 (-110) Under 132 (-110) |
| Caesars | Tennessee -17 (-110) Longwood +17 (-110) | Tennessee -2800 Longwood +1200 | Over 132 (-110) Under 132 (-110) |
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Why Longwood Can Win
The odds make it look like the Lancers scoring an upset over the Vols is a pretty daunting task in the program’s first NCAA Tournament trip— and it is. However, it is not an impossible one. The Big South champions are a solid team in their own right and enter tournament play clicking on all cylinders, having won eight in a row and 20 of their last 21.
Longwood has a balanced roster stacked with veteran talent that plays well on both ends of the court. Offensively, the team ranked 49th in the nation in scoring during the regular season and 52nd in defensive scoring. The Lancers move the ball around well and attack the boards better than most, ranking 13th in the country in rebound margin (7.2).
However, Longwood will need something to go its way to beat a team like Tennessee. The Lancers will likely need to get hot from behind the arc, where they rank No. 19 in the country in three-point field goal percentage).
The Vols are one of the better defensive teams in the nation, though, and will not make it easy for them.
Some bets prohibited: Tennessee sports betting does not allow these March Madness wagers
Why Tennessee Can Win
It is always hard for a No. 14 seed to pull off an upset, but it will be especially tough for Longwood to put one over on the Volunteers. Tennessee is one of the more talented, well-balanced teams in the nation, ranking No. 7 in the KenPom rankings. The Vols could have easily been a No. 2 seed.
With wins over teams like Arizona, Auburn, and Kentucky, it is not hard to imagine Tennessee beating the Lancers. Longwood averages a few more points a game than Tennessee (76.4 to 73.2), but the Lancers have not faced a defense as tough as the Vols’ defense, which ranks 24th in the nation.
Tennessee is good, but not great, on the offensive side of the court, but the Vols are so good on the defensive end that the team does not need to be.
Betting Analysis
Tennessee’s worst enemy in this game is itself. If the Vols are still on Cloud Nine after winning the SEC Tournament and do not take Longwood seriously, the Lancers are good enough to record the upset or at least win against the spread. That is, assuming Longwood brings its A-game.
However, if coach Rick Barnes has his team focused and ready to play on a national stage, the Vols will send a message to the rest of the South Bracket.
Our Pick: Tennessee -16.5
