Look For Warriors (+170) To Win Western Conference
Josh Heupel came to Knoxville and transformed the Tennessee football program in his first year. After a disastrous 2020 season and subsequent offseason, Heupel changed the direction that Tennessee was heading, and is now looking to lead the team into even more success in his second year.
The Vols finished Heupel’s inaugural season at 7-6, a big improvement from Jeremy Pruitt’s final 3-7 season. As the Vols continued to make more noise through the course of the season, teams were aware that a new era in Knoxville had begun. After a stretch of “defensive-minded” years under Pruitt, the Vols put the SEC on notice in 2021 through Heupel’s impressive offensive ability.
By the end of the season, Tennessee’s offense was firing on all cylinders, ranking seventh in scoring offense (39.3 PPG) and ninth in the country in total offense (474.9 YPG). Additionally, Tennessee scored 38 or more points in eight of the Vols’ 13 games last season. The Vols’ highest-scoring output came against South Alabama as Tennessee dropped 60 on the Jaguars.
So, with the Vols taking strides towards success last year, and the Tennessee fanbase coming alive once again, expectations are high for Josh Heupel’s second year in Knoxville.
By all means, this Tennessee team has and will have weaknesses. The Vols are losing a lot of production on the defensive line and wide receiver room, to name two spots in specific. Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons to buy Tennessee stock heading into next year. Here are three of them.
A Smooth Schedule
While playing in the SEC, having an unfavorable schedule can put a team behind the eight-ball before the season even begins. With all the intense competition happening in the SEC each week, a tough three-game stretch can be detrimental to a team’s postseason goals. However, every so often, the schedule can also provide a favorable path for a team looking to collect quality wins without any miserable stretches.
All things considered, Tennessee has about as favorable of a schedule in 2022 as they could have asked for.
The Vols’ first marquee game will come in the second week of the season against Pittsburgh as the teams complete the home-and-home series that began last season. Speaking of that game, though, Tennessee lost by a touchdown in Neyland, but it was only the second game under Heupel’s staff. Things could be different this time around now that the new Tennessee way has sunk in. Additionally, Pittsburgh will be without Heisman nominee Kenny Pickett for the next matchup. While it’ll be a tough environment, Tennessee could steal a high-profile road win early in the season.
Florida, Alabama, Missouri, and Kentucky will all be home games for Tennessee this year. Starting with Florida, considering that will be the second SEC game in the Billy Napier era for Florida, Tennessee should be favored to win at home over a team they lost to last year but were better than by the end of the season. Now, Florida is bringing in a new staff, while the Vols are reloading for their second year. Look for Josh Heupel to find his first win over the Vols’ Gator rivals in 2022.
While Alabama is going to seemingly always give Tennessee fits, the other two home games need to be won for Tennessee to improve on last year’s season. The Vols set the expectation for beating Missouri and Kentucky in year one, and now need to capitalize on the hot start. Kentucky is shaping up to be good once again, but a win here for Heupel at home could prove to be massive.
The Vols’ first marquee road SEC game will be in one of the league’s toughest environments in Death Valley. Tennessee will be facing off against new LSU head coach Brian Kelly early in his SEC tenure as well but will be playing LSU coming off of their bye week. This game will be tough for Tennessee no matter what, but the setup couldn’t be any more favorable at this point in February.
Lastly, Tennessee’s only back-to-back road games come at the end of the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, meaning that Tennessee will travel to LSU and to Georgia next season surrounded by home games in Neyland Stadium.
The schedule doesn’t prove that Tennessee will reach a certain amount of wins. Not by a long shot. But, what it does show, is that Tennessee at least has a pretty good setup later this fall.
Tennessee Football 2022 Schedule:
- Saturday, Sep. 3 – Ball State @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Sep. 10 – Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
- Saturday, Sep. 17 – Akron @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Sep. 24 – Florida @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Oct. 1 – BYE
- Saturday, Oct. 8 – Tennessee @ LSU
- Saturday, Oct. 15 – Alabama @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Oct. 22 – UT Martin @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Oct. 29 – Kentucky @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Nov. 5 – Tennessee @ Georgia
- Saturday, Nov. 12 – Missouri @ Tennessee
- Saturday, Nov. 19 – Tennessee @ South Carolina
- Saturday, Nov. 26 – Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
- Saturday, Dec. 3 – SEC Championship
Returning Superstars
By the end of the 2021 season, Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker and wide receiver Cedric Tillman were household names in town. The fact that Tennessee will be returning their top quarterback and top receiver is a huge boost in itself heading into next season.
Tennessee is losing a fair amount of production this off-season – on both sides of the ball.
Velus Jones Jr, JaVonta Payton, and Tiyon Evans are huge pieces that Tennessee is going to need to replace offensively. Meanwhile, defensively, the Vols will lose Matthew Butler, Jay Blakely, Caleb Tremblay, Alontae Taylor, and Theo Jackson, to name a few.
But despite the need to replace some of the production, the fact that Tennessee is bringing back its most important pieces makes the rest of it bearable.
Tillman ended the season as Hooker’s go-to target and top receiver on the field and was also one of the SEC’s most productive receivers last year finishing with the fifth-most yards. Tillman had huge games against the SEC’s best in Georgia and Alabama, doing everything he could to give Tennessee a chance to win. Tillman accounted for about 33 percent of Tennessee’s passing yards last year, which is remarkable considering Tennessee had 17 players with at least one reception. In addition, Tillman had about 36 percent of Tennessee’s touchdown receptions as well.
However, the other piece to the puzzle is quarterback Hendon Hooker, who will look to build on his terrific 2021 season.
Hooker’s dual-threat ability made him a menace to opposing defenses. Tennessee’s receivers routinely posed deep threats to the opponent’s secondary and Hooker had the skill to find down the field. But, even more, Hooker also had an innate ability to extend the play with his legs and catch the defense asleep.
In his first season in Knoxville, which began with him as a backup quarterback, Hooker finished as the top-ranked SEC quarterback in QBR (182.02) and the fourth-ranked quarterback in passing yards (2,945). Additionally, Hooker had the second-best completion percentage (68.21) and was tied for the fewest interceptions (3) in the SEC.
Knowing that Hendon Hooker will return as the Vols’ quarterback with his top receiving threat Cedric Tillman still on the outside is a big early confidence boost to Tennessee’s offense.
The Josh Heupel Effect at Tennessee
In January, Heupel was named a co-winner of the Steve Spurrier First-Year Coaching Award, recognizing the job that Heupel did in Knoxville in 2021.
Then, just a few days ago, Heupel was able to officially accept the award.
Tennessee HC Josh Heupel accepts the FWAA’s Steve Spurrier Award for First-Year Head Coach.
He won the award, along with South Carolina HC Shane Beamer. @GrahamHall_ pic.twitter.com/Hgts5DnG5Y
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 22, 2022
The change in direction that Heupel has shifted the Tennessee program in is nothing short of remarkable. Consider this: In the middle of January in 2021, the Tennessee Football program was without a coaching staff, without a director or athletics, under investigation, and had a steady stream of players leaving the program. Flash forward one year later, in the middle of January in 2022, when the Tennessee football program had just come off of an overtime defeat in the Music City Bowl to 9-4 Purdue and the college football world was in agreement that Tennessee got hosed by the officials.
What a difference a year makes, right?
Now, Tennessee looks to be one of the more stable teams in the conference.
In his first year, Heupel proved that he could shoulder the weight of the Tennessee program, one that was constantly going through investigations as well. Instead of folding in his first year, Heupel turned Tennessee into an offensive juggernaut, a 7-6 team, and was recognized as one of the two best first-year coaches in the nation.
Heupel’s philosophy of building a team-first program began all the way back in the spring of 2021 when the players and staff were playing dodgeball on the indoor field to build some team unity. Some six months later or so, Tennessee was using that unity and strength in numbers to defeat No. 18 Kentucky on the road in Lexington on a freezing cold November night.
The Tennessee football players spoke about the change in culture last year – so much so it seemed almost like forced repetitiveness. But the more you heard what the players were saying, you could tell why they couldn’t stop repeating it. Because it was true. Heupel’s staff was able to bring in a different, productive, yet still challenging mindset to the team, which pushed them into bowl eligibility by the end of the season.
There’s still a lot to be seen from the Heupel era, and by no means is one good season a definitive sign of things to come. But, regardless, Heupel showed last year why he is one of the top rising offensive minds in college football. None of his assistants ended up bolting for another job in college football, either, with only Kodi Burns leaving to take a job in the NFL – hard to blame him.
The coaches believe in Heupel’s system. The players believe in the coaches. The administration believes in the program. And the fans are hungry for more success.
Will Tennessee be able to take the next leap and improve on the season they had in year one? Or was Heupel’s first season merely a flash of success? The answer is trending toward the first option, but we will know for sure next January. Until then, though, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Tennessee Football.
