NCAAM 2/7 Preview: Look To The Team Totals In Virginia Vs. Duke
After each week of the season that Tennessee plays at least two games, “The Starting Five” will analyze the previous week of play from the Big Orange while highlighting questions Tennessee is facing in the coming weeks in five subheadings.
Tennessee took care of business this week picking up a home win over Texas A&M and a road win at South Carolina as the Vols’ offense shined.
Now, on to the starting five.
Best Offensive Week Of The Season
Offensive consistency has eluded Tennessee this season. However, with the calendar flipped to February the Vols turned in their best offensive week of the season.
In Tennessee’s first eight conference games they scored 70 points just two times. This week, the Vols scored over 80 points both games including a 90-point performance against Texas A&M.
While the Aggies and South Carolina aren’t great teams, their strength is their defenses. Both rank in the nation’s top 75 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Tennessee dismantled both defenses, tallying 1.304 points per possession against Texas A&M and 1.227 at South Carolina. The impressive week was enough to catapult Tennessee’s adjusted offensive efficiency from No. 52 to No. 34 nationally.
So, what made Tennessee’s offense so effective this week?
Tennessee players said they learned from the last six minutes in the comeback loss at Texas, seeing the energy and pace they have to play with at all times on offense. Rick Barnes said much of the same, emphasizing the “force” his team played with against Texas A&M.
And that was undoubtedly the case. The Vols’ ball movement was fantastic this week, assisting on 71% of their baskets. Tennessee was assisting on 62% of its baskets entering the week.
Assuredly, some of Tennnessee’s success was due to how well they shot from the perimeter. During their three-point shooting struggles earlier this season, Barnes insisted that Tennessee was a good shooting time that would start making shots.
We saw that this week, Tennessee made 25-of-53 (47%) of its three-point attempts including a spectacular 52% three-point shooting in Columbia. The Vols had previously struggled to shoot from the perimeter on the road.
Lastly, this slips under the radar but Tennessee had another strong offensive rebounding week. A quietly strong rebounding team, the Vols tallied 16 offensive rebounds against Texas A&M and 18 second chance points against the Gamecocks.
Vols Lose Nkamhoua For Season
The strong week ended on a sour note. Tennessee power forward Olivier Nkamhoua suffered an ankle injury in the second half at South Carolina that Barnes believed was “fine” postgame.
That didn’t prove to be the case as X-rays revealed a left ankle injury that requires surgery. Tennessee didn’t specify the injury, but said he’s likely unavailable the rest of the season.
I wrote in more detail about where Tennessee has to turn now here, but, obviously, it’s a very big loss.
Nkamhoua had been Tennessee’s best big man this season and while consistency on the offensive end eluded him, Nkamhoua brought rim protection and defensive energy the Vols’ other big men don’t possess.
An Extended Look At The Four-Guard Lineups
One result of Nkamhoua’s injury is that the Vols will undoubtedly play more of their small-ball lineups. Both Rick Barnes comments and Tennessee’s probable starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against Mississippi State — which inserts Justin Powell for Nkamhoua and moves Josiah-Jordan James to the four — says as much.
Luckily for Tennessee, they’ve been playing that small-ball lineup more-and-more over the last few weeks. In fact, in Tennessee’s last five games, three of its four most used lineups and six of its 10 most used lineups are small lineups with James at the four.
That group has been extremely successful for Tennessee especially as of late as three-point shots have started to fall.
The four-guard lineup was in the game for Tennessee’s massive, extended 35-12 run against the Gamecocks. Lineups that included three of Tennessee’s four main guards — Chandler, Zeigler, Powell and Vescovi — were +18 in 12 minutes of action while all other lineups were +6 in 28 minutes of action.
The small-ball lineup was at its best against South Carolina and while it won’t be that good every game there’s plenty of reasons to think it’s Tennessee’s best offensive lineup.
That lineup has been at its best this season when Nkamhoua plays the five, but it is still effective with Fulkerson or Plavsic in the role. What I’m watching for is how comfortable Jahmai Mashack can be playing James’ role at the four. If he’s effective there then Tennessee can go to the small lineup even more.
Zeigler And James Turning The Corner Offensively?
We discussed Tennessee’s best offensive week of the season and the larger variables that are causing it. However, in the micro level there’s two players that have stepped up on the offensive end in a big way.
The first is junior wing Josiah Jordan James. The lefty has always been an elite defender and an inconsistent, at best, offensive player. However, James turned in two of the best offensive games of his Tennessee career this week and is playing with complete confidence since missing the game winner at Texas.
On the week, James tallied 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting from the floor and five-of-11 from three-point range including a career high 20-point performance at South Carolina.
Tennessee doesn’t need 17 points per game from the junior, but they do need that strong three-point shooting to space the floor and open up driving lanes for the guards. And James has been doing just that. Over the last eight games, the South Carolina native is shooting 16-of-40 (40%) from three-point range.
That Josiah Jordan James completely changes Tennessee’s offensive potential.
Speaking of changing Tennessee’s offensive potential. I’ve said all season that the development of Kennedy Chandler and Zakai Zeigler would do that and change the potential of this team.
Well, Zeigler’s development is moving in the right direction. The freshman point guard is becoming a consistent threat on the offensive end, night in and night out, and is no longer just an every couple game offensive spark.
Zeigler scored in double figures in Tennessee’s last four games and six of its last eight games. The New York native scored in double figures just twice in Tennessee’s first 14 games.
The 5-foot-9 guard is figuring out what life in the SEC looks like and is running right into the heart of it. Zeigler was the leader of the Vols’ massive second half at South Carolina, scoring 18 points on a perfect four-for-four shooting from deep.
Like James, Zeigler’s three-point shooting has greatly improved as of late. The freshman is shooting 34% from three-point range in SEC games, but is 11-of-20 from deep in the last four games.
If Zeigler and James keep playing with the confidence and aggression they are on the offensive end, Tennessee’s offense will find more-and-more of the consistency it’s looking for.
Can The Vols Keep Rolling In Starkville?
The Vols return to the court Wednesday night in Starkville as they search for their third straight win and third straight conference road win at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State is a fringe NCAA Tournament that’s in Joe Lunardi’s first four out entering the week. We took a look at the back half of Tennessee’s SEC schedule last week, and this matchup is a big one for Tennessee.
The Vols have four near toss up games left on the schedule with four more games they will be big favorites to earn a win. The Mississippi State game is one of those toss ups. The Bulldogs have a strong squad and are desperate for a quality win after losing three of their last four games.
The Bulldogs boast a strong offense — No. 28 in adjusted offensive efficiency — and rely heavily on a number of front court players. In its first game without Nkamhoua, Tennessee is facing a strong front court with a pair of double-digit scorers.
Still, star point guard Iverson Molinar is the head of the snake in Starkville and is by far State’s best offensive player. Averaging 18.2 points and four assists per game, Barnes called Molinar an under the radar SEC Player of the Year candidate.
This is a Tennessee team playing extremely well right now and will not be short on confidence. If they earn their third straight SEC road win, they’ll set themselves up to be in a fantastic position for the final month of the regular season.
