Tennessee jumped up six spots in the AP Poll to No. 18 this week after beating Vanderbilt on the road and then-No. 13 LSU at home. After beating Florida on Wednesday, a win over Texas in Austin could result in the Volunteers moving up a few more spots in the next poll. However, Tennessee is 2-3 on the road this season, while Texas is 12-1 at home.
Most Tennessee sportsbooks have the Vols listed as 2.5-point underdogs. The Vols are 1-3 so far this season when underdogs.
Tennessee vs. Texas Betting Odds
| SPORTSBOOK | POINT SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Tennessee +3.5 (-110) Texas -3.5 (-110) | Tennessee +145 Texas -175 | Over 126.5 (-110) Under 126.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | Tennessee +3.5 (-110) Texas -3.5 (-110) | Tennessee +145 Texas -170 | Over 126.5 (-110) Under 126.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | Tennessee +3 (-110) Texas -3 (-110) | Tennessee +150 Texas -170 | Over 126.5 (-110) Under 126.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | Tennessee +3.5 (-106) Texas -3.5 (-114) | Tennessee +140 Texas -170 | Over 126.5 (-110) Under 126.5 (-110) |
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Tennessee Volunteers (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS)
Tennessee will take a three-game winning streak into Austin Saturday night, but the Volunteers have struggled on the road this season. All three losses were against ranked teams (Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky), with the wins coming against less impressive teams, Vanderbilt and Colorado.
Tennessee likes to move the ball around a lot. The Vols average 17 assists a game, which ranks 13th in the nation. Such movement can sometimes lead to turnovers, but the Volunteers typically do not commit too many turnovers. Their turnover margin of 4.8 is 11th in the country. However, the Texas defense will put the Tennessee offense to the test.
The Volunteers will have to remain focused and make some shots early while trying to force the Longhorns to play faster than they want to. If Tennessee can play at a pace it can control, it may walk away with a much-needed road win over a good Texas team. If the Vols get sloppy and struggle to make shots as they did in the first half against Florida, it could be a long night.
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Texas Longhorns (15-5 SU, 9-11 ATS)
Expectations were high for the Longhorns entering the season. Preseason rankings had them as a top-five team. First-year head coach Chris Beard has them playing well, overall, but they have struggled against ranked opponents (0-3).
Poll voters and the tournament selection committee like to see teams play well against tougher competition. So far, Texas just hasn’t done so. Three of its five losses are against ranked opponents Gonzaga, Seton Hall, and Iowa State. Starting with the Volunteers Saturday night, they face ranked teams in five of their next six games.
The defense has been the key for the Longhorns so far this season. Texas has the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the nation and has held teams to an average of 54.5 points per game. Texas held its opponents to 52 points or less in four of the last six games, but they tend to struggle when they play other teams with solid defenses.
Their last two losses came against teams with scoring defenses ranked inside the top 40 in the country (Iowa State, 20th; and Kansas State, 35th). Tennessee is 40th in scoring defense.
Betting Analysis
Against a solid defensive team like Texas, Tennessee cannot afford to play sloppy or get off to a slow start. The Volunteers need to press the pace and make the Longhorns play catch-up with them. If they can, they might be able to minimize what Texas does best and force the Longhorns to try to win the game with their offense, which ranks 222nd in the nation at 69.5 points/game.
If that scenario plays out, Tennessee will win this game outright. It is not going to be shocking if Texas wins this one, but it would be a mistake to count the Vols out. Take Tennessee at +120.
