The Tennessee Titans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) will be home underdogs (+3.5) Thursday night when they host the San Francisco 49ers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) in a game that could be pivotal to their division crown and possibly even their playoff hopes.
Eight weeks into the season, what had begun as a tight race for the AFC South was anything but. With a win over Indianapolis in Week 8, the gap in the betting odds, which had been growing throughout the season, got drastically wider.
| TEAM | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | -110 | -110 | -200 | -450 | -275 | -350 | -375 | -450 | -1600 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +150 | +140 | +225 | +375 | +225 | +260 | +280 | +325 | +900 |
The Injury That Changed Everything
Something drastic would have had to happen to give Indianapolis a shot — and it did. An injury to Titans RB Derrick Henry knocked him out for the remainder of the regular season. For a couple of weeks, the Titans continued to win, but the loss of Henry eventually took its toll on the offense.
Tennessee dropped three of its next four. The Colts bounced back from the loss with wins in five of their next six. After expanding for a few weeks, the odds got smaller.
| TEAM | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | -2500 | -5000 | -1600 | -1000 | -800 | -5000 | -700 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1000 | +1400 | +800 | +650 | +550 | +1400 | +475 |
How The Tennessee Titans Can Win Or Lose The AFC South
Tennessee needs to win two of its last three games to lock down the division regardless of how the Colts finish. If Indianapolis drops one of their remaining three games, the Titans need to win only a single game to win the division.
The Titans are underdogs Thursday night to the 49ers. Next week, early odds at Caesars have the Titans as 3.5-point favorites against the Dolphins. Tennessee will likely be the favorite when the odds do get posted for the regular-season finale against the Texans.
The Colts are 1-point underdogs to the Cardinals this week. It will not be shocking to see Indianapolis win based on their recent form relative to how the Cardinals have been playing. Then, the Colts finish the season with games against the Raiders and Jaguars, both games they should win.
It is not hard to imagine the Colts winning their last three, which means the Titans must win two of their final three to retain control of their division title hopes.
You can’t assume that they will beat the Texans and Dolphins. Tennessee was favored by ten back in Week 11 when they lost by nine to Houston.
The Dolphins are riding a six-game winning streak heading into Week 16, and they will not be a pushover by any means. So, with three games to go and needing two wins, the Titans can’t overlook the 49ers for what should be easier opponents.
They need to beat San Francisco.
Titans Vs. 49ers Betting Odds
| SPORTSBOOK | POINT SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Titans +3.5 (-115) 49ers -3.5 (-105) | Titans +150 49ers -175 | Over 43.5 (-110) Under 43.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | Titans +3.5 (-115) 49ers -3.5 (-105) | Titans +150 49ers -170 | Over 44 (-110) Under 44 (-110) |
| FanDuel | Titans +3.5 (-110) 49ers -3.5 (-110) | Titans +156 49ers -186 | Over 44 (-110) Under 44 (-110) |
| Caesars | Titans +3.5 (-110) 49ers -3.5 (-110) | Titans +155 49ers -180 | Over 44 (-110) Under 44 (-110) |
With 201 yards on the ground, there were finally signs of life in the running game for the Titans last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With a solid effort by the defense and a little help in the passing game, the Titans could have won the game had they not turned the ball over four times.
While committing turnovers has been a real issue for the Titans the last few weeks, even when they do not turn the ball over — well, the offense is still lackluster. They have been competitive when they protect the ball and force a few turnovers.
Since losing Henry, the Titans have committed just a single turnover in their three wins while forcing seven.
Getting WR A.J. Brown back from injury could help the passing game out. Otherwise, QB Ryan Tannehill will have to work with the cast of unknown wide receivers yet again. Even with Brown, though, the 49ers’ defense, which ranks seventh against the pass. San Francisco is stingy against the run, too.
Betting Analysis
To win this game, Tennessee needs to protect the ball and find a way to generate some offense. It would help if they can force the 49ers to commit a few turnovers, too. However, it is hard to see the Titans pulling off the upset with how both teams have played in recent weeks.
As for their division title hopes, losing this game hurts but does not kill their chances. They can still beat the Dolphins and Texans, or the Cardinals could do them a favor and beat the Colts on Christmas Day. They are far from a lock to win it, though. At the current odds, the reward does not merit the risk.
