No. 14 Tennessee will be looking to snap a 33-game losing streak to top 10 opponents when it faces No. 3 Georgia on Saturday afternoon.
The Vols have lost those games by an average of 25.9 points per game and have gone 6-19-1 against-the-spread. They are 12.5-point underdogs against the Bulldogs at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
“I thought everyone was going to be on Georgia after beating Auburn the way they did,” Westgate risk manager Edgar Federico said. “The early action (Monday) was on Tennessee…I was shocked. I was expecting liability on Georgia right off the bat.”
The SuperBook opened with Tennessee as a 13-point underdog, but Monday’s betting action bumped the line down to 12.5. Bettors made some plays on Georgia the next few days, but the action swung back to the Vols on Thursday.
“As far as today (Thursday), it went back to Tennessee,” Federico said. “It went from Tennessee to Georgia and now we are back with liability on Tennessee both with straight bets and parlays.”
Saturday’s total opened at 42.5. Bettors are expecting a higher-scoring game than the opening number suggested, though.
“The total went up to 43.5,” Federico said. “We did take some sharp action on the over.”
If the total does go over the number, it will buck several trends. Tennessee has gone under in six of its last seven games overall and in five of its last six road games. Georgia has seen 10 of its last 11 games go under the number, including each of its last five home contests.
The Bulldogs are listed at -500 on the moneyline, while Tennessee is +400. Georgia’s implied probability is 83.3 percent, while the Vols have a 20 percent chance of winning.
“We have some liability on the Georgia moneyline, but you have to lay five dollars to win a dollar so we are not really worried in that department,” Federico said.
Tennessee has covered the spread in each of its first two games this season. Missouri was not competitive as a 10-point underdog in last week’s 35-12 decision. The game went just under the total of 49 points.
Georgia easily covered as a 7.5-point favorite against Auburn in last week’s 27-6 win. That game went well under the total of 44.5.
The Bulldogs have covered the spread in three of the last four head-to-head games between these two teams. Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games as a double-digit road underdog.
Saturday’s game is set to kick off at 3:30 on CBS.
