There’s a common perception among college football fans, and especially Tennessee fans, that when a team ends a significant losing streak against a rival that the streak-busting victory will be a blowout.
The theory is that the team on the losing end of the streak often has a mental block and the only way to overcome that is by ensuring their victory isn’t even close. That way, the team on the losing end of the streak doesn’t have to worry about getting psyched out late in the game.
But if the Vols’ history with ending losing streaks is any indication, a streak-busting win over the Florida Gators this season won’t be a decisive victory.
One Vegas betting site has the Vols as a 12.5-point favorite over the Gators this season. So one casino is already buying in to the idea that a streak-busting victory for the Vols will result in a blowout.
History, however, does not lend itself to that perception, however.
When the Vols have overcome losing streaks in the past, they’ve had their share of blowout victories to be sure. When the Vols ended a four-game skid in 1990 against the Gators that spanned from 1976-1989, they won 45-3. When the Vols ended their eight-game losing streak (including a tie in 1993) against Alabama in 1995, they won by 27 points. And three times the Vols ended three-game losing streaks to Auburn with wins of 18-plus points from 1970 through 1985.
But the Vols have more of a history of closely-contested wins whenever they end losing streaks to rivals.
Consider Tennessee’s most recent streak-busting victory over Georgia this past season. The 38-31 win ended a five-game losing streak to the Bulldogs, and it wasn’t a blowout. When the Vols ended a four-game skid in 2004, they won 19-14. And when they won in 1989 to end a four-game losing streak to the Bulldogs, the final score was just 17-14.
Alabama had built up an 11-game winning streak over the Vols from 1971-1981, but when the Vols put an end to that streak, it was with a 35-28 victory. When the Vols ended a rare three-game skid to South Carolina in 2013, the final score was just 23-21. When Tennessee ended a five-game streak against Florida in 1998, it took overtime to defeat the Gators 20-17. And even when the Vols put an end to Vanderbilt’s brief two-game winning streak in 2014, it was by a margin of seven points.
Have the Vols broken out of slumps with blowout wins before? Absolutely. But have they done it enough to say that it’s the most likely scenario? Not at all.
Of all the data given here, the Vols ended five streaks against rivals by more than the 12.5-point spread Tennessee is being given over Florida for 2016. But seven times the margin of victory was seven or fewer points in streak-busting victories for the Vols, and that includes a win over Alabama that ended a streak that reached the same total the Vols currently have against Florida, 11 games.
Tennessee has twice ended losing streaks to Florida. Once in a 42-point blowout, and the other in a three-point victory in overtime. It’s certainly possible the Vols could blast the Gators on September 24th in Neyland Stadium to end the 11-game drought against them. But history has proven that streak-busting victories are more likely to be close games rather than a blowout.
However it happens, Vol fans will just be happy if Tennessee is the one who emerges victorious for once.
