For SEC games this season, Daniel Lewis will put together a blueprint for how Tennessee can have its best chance to knock off that week’s opponent. It’s written from a Tennessee coach’s mindset and isn’t necessarily representative of how RTI predicts the game to go.
Offense: Missouri doesn’t carry the intimidation factor that a team like Alabama does, but when you look at the numbers from a defensive standpoint – there truly is an argument that the Tigers may be the best, or very close to, the best defense Tennessee will face overall this year. Florida and Missouri are the only two teams in the conference that are in the top four statistically in rushing, passing, scoring and total defense.
The Tigers are also second in the league in least yardage per play allowed (4.3), and have given up the least number of plays over 20 yards in the SEC this year. Simply put, Missouri limits the big play, doesn’t let anything come easily for the opponent and makes it difficult to move the ball or score against it.
The names and faces have changed, but the system, the discipline and the mindset that Gary Pinkel, who will be coaching his final home game on Saturday, has put in place in Columbia, remain the same. And that’s a system Tennessee, led by Joshua Dobbs at quarterback the past two years against Missouri, has struggled with.
Combined, Dobbs has completed 50-of-79 passes for 435 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions while rushing 24 times for 58 yards against Missouri over the past two years. Tennessee lost both games, 31-3 in 2013 and 29-21 in 2014.
Dobbs’ ability to run in this game will be key. Missouri’s done a good job keeping him under wraps the past two years in that area. And with some concern about his overall health after the QB run game was essentially eliminated from the playbook against North Texas, the Vols need a healthy and effective dual-threat quarterback to move the ball on the Tigers.
Yardage won’t come easy against the Tigers. Tennessee needs to remain patient, stay in front of the sticks and keep itself out of third-and-forever type situations that Missouri feasts on. Withstand the emotional high that Mizzou could be on, take care of the football and be patient, and UT will have its best opportunity to win this football game.
Play a four-quarter game is cliche to say, but it’s an important reminder in this one. It’s easy to envision a scenario where UT gets down early because of Missouri coming out fired up, but the Vols have to keep playing if that happens. They are, after all, the more talented team and even an early hole against this impressive defense isn’t a death sentence. And on the other hand, the Vols can’t afford to let their foot off the gas either if they can build another early lead. The Vols survived that against South Carolina, but might not be as fortunate in this situation.
Defense: The challenge isn’t as daunting on this side of the ball, but the margin for error is still relatively small. Missouri’s defense has made it difficult for opposing offenses to score with any regularity, so that puts pressure on the UT defense to keep this struggling Missouri offense off the board as much as possible.
It’s not pretty offensively for Missouri, there’s no reason to sugarcoat it. Just like the Tigers are near the top in almost every defensive category in the SEC, they are at or right near the bottom of every significant category on the other side of the ball – scoring, total, rushing and passing offense. And just like they don’t give up many big plays, they don’t generate them either.
Nobody expected Missouri’s quarterbacks and skill players – with perhaps the exception of running back Russell Hansbrough, who has battled injuries – to be elite this year. But it’s the offensive line that has really been disappointing for the Tigers. There’s experience there, but it simply hasn’t performed at the level the Tigers need, and the forced midseason switch at quarterback to Drew Lock, while perhaps advantageous in the long run, has slowed a bad offense even more at times.
Lock has a big arm, but his decision making, and his lack of overall talent at receiver, have made it tough for him to lead an effective attack. Tennessee will look to take advantage of some of the the issues Missouri’s had protecting the quarterback so far this season to try to get to Lock, force him to make bad decisions and give UT some easy opportunities to flip the field position or even score.
With the challenges Tennessee could have moving the football offensively, controlling the field position and creating turnovers will go a long way in helping UT get the road W in Columbia.
