We’re in the season of projections, predictions and calculations, and here’s another one for the nerdier crowd.
Projections for The Fremeau Efficiency Index, developed by college football analyst Brian Fremeau, who is known for his work at FootballOutsiders.com, have been updated and it has the Vols as the No. 29 team in the nation heading into the 2015 season, but also 10th in the SEC and fourth in the SEC East.
What is this calculation? I’ll let him explain in his own words.
“The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Unadjusted game efficiency is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose.”
In layman’s terms, it’s a calculation that looks at how teams fare in significant drives against other FBS opponents with bonuses added for strong possessions against quality opponents.
Of course, this is a very imperfect science, and assuming that these projections are built on what teams did last year, it’s reasonable to think that the Vols are underrated since they are among the nation’s leaders in both returning and incoming talent for 2015.
Still, an interesting concept and another prediction to add to the pile.
